JPS Global Investments — What to Make of Brexit
Dear Clients and Friends,
Within the next 4-8 hours we will find out whether the United Kingdom will remain within the EU or not. It has been billed as a macro event that will move stock markets, but the long term consequences of a break from the EU are unknown and unknowable. It is the uncertainty that of course fuels the market volatility. If the current rally in the pound and stock markets is to be believed, a “Remain” vote is the most likely outcome. A “Brexit,” however, would likely cause a sell-off that is of greater magnitude than any relief rally from “Remain,” as it would be unexpected. However, betting in either ...
JPS Global Investments — Spring 2016 Client Letter
Dear Clients and Friends,
Charles Dickens would have perfectly captured the spirit of the first quarter of 2016: It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. It was the worst start to a year for the US stock market ever, with the S&P 500 Index alone erasing $1.4 trillion in 10 days. The market bottomed out on February 11th, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ leading the decline, down 15% since January 1st. But then, the reversal came swift and unexpected and by the end of March markets were mostly back in positive territory.
JPS Global Investments — Winter 2016 Newsletter
During the holidays many investors were looking forward to closing the books on 2015. After all, it had been a rather dismal year, with almost all asset classes turning in negative returns. The only stock screens that were flashing green were those in China, but that’s because they use the color red for prosperity and the color green to indicate the opposite.
JPS Global Investments — Fall 2015 Newsletter
October has been a good month so far, with markets clawing back some lost territory, but the third quarter of 2015 was a tough one for investors around the world and across investment categories. Depending on which index you look at, US stocks were down in the 7-9% range. European stocks — left for dead by many investors — also had a tough quarter, but they are still in the black for 2015. The real damage occurred in Asia, with China’s markets losing a third of their value.
JPS Global Investments — Summer 2015 Newsletter
As I contemplated what to write about for my summer investment newsletter, my first inclination was to not talk about Greece and China. The financial press has had its sights trained on these two topics for some time now, and the markets are already accounting for the increased likelihood of a political miscalculation in Europe and the popping of the China credit bubble. The fact that the stock markets in Europe and the euro have seen only modest volatility, is not a lack of market attention, but rather a conviction that the European Central Bank can immunize the rest of Europe against contagion from whatever happens in Greece. Only when markets blatantly over- or underreact, do investors have a reasonable chance of making money by selling when others are greedy and buying when others are fearful. Most of the time, investors are better off sticking with their original plan because — with the exception of extreme circumstances — it is hard to conclude with conviction that the market has it wrong.